2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings
The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 6, 2012, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2012 presidential election and the 2012 Senate elections, were also held on this date.
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Election ratings
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
- Lean: clear advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe: outcome is nearly certain
Key:
- Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name;
- "(Open)" means that the seat was created in a state that gained one or more seats as the result of the 2010 census;
- Where two incumbents are shown, that is also because of redistricting.
| District | Incumbent | Cook[1][2] | Rothenberg[3] | Roll Call[4] | Crystal Ball[5] | NY Times[6] | Real Clear Politics[7] |
The Hill[8] | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona 1 | (Open) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | D gain |
| Arizona 2 | Ron Barber (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Ron Barber (D) | D hold |
| Arizona 9 | (Open) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Kyrsten Sinema (D) | D gain |
| Arkansas 1 | Rick Crawford (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Rick Crawford (R) | R hold |
| Arkansas 4 | (Mike Ross) (D) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Tom Cotton (R) | R gain |
| California 3 | John Garamendi (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | John Garamendi (D) | D hold |
| California 7 | Dan Lungren (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Ami Bera (D) | D gain |
| California 9 | Jerry McNerney (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Jerry McNerney (D) | D hold |
| California 10 | Jeff Denham (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Jeff Denham (R) | R hold |
| California 16 | Jim Costa (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Jim Costa (D) | D hold |
| California 21 | (Open) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R | David G. Valadao (R) | R gain |
| California 24 | Lois Capps (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lois Capps (D) | D hold |
| California 26 | (Elton Gallegly) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Julia Brownley (D) | D gain |
| California 36 | Mary Bono Mack (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Raul Ruiz (D) | D gain |
| California 41 | (Open) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Mark A. Takano (D) | D gain |
| California 47 | (Open) | Likely D | D Favored | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Alan S. Lowenthal (D) | D gain |
| California 52 | Brian P. Bilbray (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Scott Peters (D) | D gain |
| Colorado 3 | Scott R. Tipton (R) | Lean R | R Favored | Tossup | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Lean R | Scott R. Tipton (R) | R hold |
| Colorado 6 | Mike Coffman (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Mike Coffman (R) | R hold |
| Colorado 7 | Ed Perlmutter (D) | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Lean D | Safe D | Ed Perlmutter (D) | D hold |
| Connecticut 4 | Jim Himes (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Jim Himes (D) | D hold |
| Connecticut 5 | (Chris Murphy) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Elizabeth Esty (D) | D hold |
| Florida 2 | Steve Southerland (R) | Lean R | R Favored | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | Steve Southerland (R) | R hold |
| Florida 9 | (Open) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Alan Grayson (D) | D gain |
| Florida 10 | Daniel Webster (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Daniel Webster (R) | R hold |
| Florida 13 | Bill Young (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Bill Young (R) | R hold |
| Florida 16 | Vern Buchanan (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | Vern Buchanan (R) | R hold |
| Florida 18 | Allen West (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Patrick Murphy (D) | D gain |
| Florida 22 | (Open) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lois Frankel (D) | D gain |
| Florida 26 | David Rivera (R) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Likely D | Joe Garcia (D) | D gain |
| Georgia 12 | John Barrow (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | John Barrow (D) | D hold |
| Illinois 8 | Joe Walsh (R) | Likely D | D Favored | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Tammy Duckworth (D) | D gain |
| Illinois 10 | Bob Dold (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Leans R | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Brad Schneider (D) | D gain |
| Illinois 11 | Judy Biggert (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Bill Foster (D) | D gain |
| Illinois 12 | (Jerry F. Costello) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Bill Enyart (D) | D hold |
| Illinois 13 | (Tim Johnson) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Rodney L. Davis (R) | R hold |
| Illinois 17 | Bobby Schilling (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Cheri Bustos (D) | D gain |
| Indiana 2 | (Joe Donnelly) (D) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid D | Likely R | Lean R | Jackie Walorski (R) | R gain |
| Indiana 8 | Larry Bucshon (R) | Lean R | R Favored | Safe R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R | Larry Bucshon (R) | R hold |
| Iowa 1 | Bruce Braley (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Bruce Braley (D) | D hold |
| Iowa 2 | David Loebsack (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | David Loebsack (D) | D hold |
| Iowa 3 | Leonard Boswell (D) / Tom Latham (R) |
Lean R | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tom Latham (R) | D Loss |
| Iowa 4 | Steve King (R) | Lean R | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Lean R | Steve King (R) | R hold |
| Kentucky 6 | Ben Chandler (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Leans R | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Andy Barr (R) | R gain |
| Maine 2 | Michael Michaud (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Michael Michaud (D) | D hold |
| Maryland 6 | Roscoe G. Bartlett (R) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | John K. Delaney (D) | D gain |
| Massachusetts 6 | John F. Tierney (D) | Lean R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Leans R | Lean R | John F. Tierney (D) | D hold |
| Michigan 1 | Dan Benishek (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Dan Benishek (R) | R hold |
| Michigan 3 | Justin Amash (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | Safe R | Justin Amash (R) | R hold |
| Michigan 6 | Fred Upton (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Fred Upton (R) | R hold |
| Michigan 7 | Tim Walberg (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Tim Walberg (R) | R hold |
| Michigan 11 | (Thaddeus G. McCotter) (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Likely R | Kerry Bentivolio (R) | R hold |
| Minnesota 2 | John Kline (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | Safe R | Likely R | John Kline (R) | R hold |
| Minnesota 6 | Michele Bachmann (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | Solid R | Leans R | Lean R | Michele Bachmann (R) | R hold |
| Minnesota 7 | Collin C. Peterson (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Collin C. Peterson (D) | D hold |
| Minnesota 8 | Chip Cravaack (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Rick Nolan (D) | D gain |
| Montana at-large | (Denny Rehberg) (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Steve Daines (R) | R hold |
| Nebraska 2 | Lee Terry (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Leans R | Likely R | Lee Terry (R) | R hold |
| Nevada 3 | Joe Heck (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Joe Heck (R) | R hold |
| Nevada 4 | (Open) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Steven Horsford (D) | D gain |
| New Hampshire 1 | Frank Guinta (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Carol Shea-Porter (D) | D gain |
| New Hampshire 2 | Charlie Bass (R) | Lean D | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Ann McLane Kuster (D) | D gain |
| New Jersey 3 | Jon Runyan (R) | Lean R | R Favored | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | Jon Runyan (R) | R hold |
| New Jersey 5 | Scott Garrett (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Scott Garrett (R) | R hold |
| New Jersey 7 | Leonard Lance (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Leonard Lance (R) | R hold |
| New Jersey 9 | Bill Pascrell (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Bill Pascrell (D) | D hold |
| New Mexico 1 | (Martin Heinrich) (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | D hold |
| New York 1 | Timothy H. Bishop (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Timothy H. Bishop (D) | D hold |
| New York 11 | Michael G. Grimm (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Likely R | Likely R | Michael G. Grimm (R) | R hold |
| New York 18 | Nan Hayworth (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Sean Patrick Maloney (D) | D gain |
| New York 19 | Christopher Gibson (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Christopher Gibson (R) | R hold |
| New York 21 | Bill Owens (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Bill Owens (D) | D hold |
| New York 22 | Richard L. Hanna (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leans R | Safe R | Likely R | Richard L. Hanna (R) | R hold |
| New York 23 | Tom Reed (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Tom Reed (R) | R hold |
| New York 24 | Ann Marie Buerkle (R) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Dan Maffei (D) | D gain |
| New York 25 | Louise M. Slaughter (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Louise M. Slaughter (D) | D hold |
| New York 27 | Kathy Hochul (D) | Lean R | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Chris Collins (R) | R gain |
| North Carolina 7 | Mike McIntyre (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Mike McIntyre (D) | D hold |
| North Carolina 8 | Larry Kissell (D) | Likely R | R Favored | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Likely R | Likely R | Richard Hudson (R) | R gain |
| North Carolina 11 | (Heath Shuler) (D) | Likely R | R Favored | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | Mark Meadows (R) | R gain |
| North Carolina 13 | (Brad Miller) (D) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leans R | Safe R | Likely R | George Holding (R) | R gain |
| North Dakota at-large | (Rick Berg) (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Kevin Cramer (R) | R hold |
| Ohio 6 | Bill Johnson (R) | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Bill Johnson (R) | R hold |
| Ohio 7 | Bob Gibbs (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | Bob Gibbs (R) | R hold |
| Ohio 9 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Marcy Kaptur (D) | D hold |
| Ohio 16 | Betty Sutton (D) / Jim Renacci (R) |
Lean R | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Jim Renacci (R) | D Loss |
| Oklahoma 2 | (Dan Boren) (D) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Markwayne Mullin (R) | R gain |
| Oregon 5 | Kurt Schrader (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Kurt Schrader (D) | D hold |
| Pennsylvania 6 | Jim Gerlach (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | Jim Gerlach (R) | R hold |
| Pennsylvania 7 | Pat Meehan (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leans R | Safe R | Likely R | Pat Meehan (R) | R hold |
| Pennsylvania 8 | Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) | Lean R | R Favored | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R | Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) | R hold |
| Pennsylvania 11 | Lou Barletta (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Lou Barletta (R) | R hold |
| Pennsylvania 12 | Mark Critz (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Keith Rothfus (R) | R gain |
| Pennsylvania 15 | Charlie Dent (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Charlie Dent (R) | R hold |
| Pennsylvania 18 | Timothy F. Murphy (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Timothy F. Murphy (R) | R hold |
| Rhode Island 1 | David Cicilline (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | David Cicilline (D) | D hold |
| South Dakota at-large | Kristi Noem (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Kristi Noem (R) | R hold |
| Tennessee 4 | Scott DesJarlais (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Likely R | Solid R | Leans R | Lean R | Scott DesJarlais (R) | R hold |
| Texas 10 | Michael McCaul (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Michael McCaul (R) | R hold |
| Texas 14 | (Ron Paul) (R) | Lean R | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Solid R | Leans R | Lean R | Randy K. Weber (R) | R hold |
| Texas 23 | Francisco Canseco (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Lean D | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Pete Gallego (D) | D gain |
| Texas 34 | (Open) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Filemon Vela Jr. (D) | D gain |
| Utah 4 | Jim Matheson (D) | Lean R | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Jim Matheson (D) | D hold |
| Virginia 2 | E. Scott Rigell (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R | E. Scott Rigell (R) | R hold |
| Virginia 5 | Robert Hurt (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Robert Hurt (R) | R hold |
| Washington 1 | (Open) | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Suzan DelBene (D) | D gain |
| Washington 3 | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | R hold |
| Washington 10 | (Open) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Denny Heck (D) | D gain |
| West Virginia 3 | Nick Rahall (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Nick Rahall (D) | D hold |
| Wisconsin 7 | Sean Duffy (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Tossup | Sean Duffy (R) | R hold |
| Wisconsin 8 | Reid Ribble (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | Reid Ribble (R) | R hold |
| District | Incumbent | Cook | Rothenberg | Roll Call | Crystal Ball | NY Times | Real Clear Politics |
The Hill | Winner | Result |
References
- "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
- "Recent Ratings Changes". Cookpolitical.com. Retrieved December 3, 2012.
- "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- , as of November 4, 2012
- Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012
- House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012
- , as of November 4, 2012
- "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
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