2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Graphical summary of national polls

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following is the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District CPVI
[1]		 Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
October 20,
2023[3]		 IE
October 27,
2023[4]		 Sabato
October 26,
2023[5]		 ED
October 26,
2023[6]
Alabama 2 D+4 New seat – Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Alaska at-large R+8 Mary Peltola (D) 55.0% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert (R) 50.4% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Arizona 6 R+3 Juan Ciscomani (R) 50.7% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup
California 3 R+4 Kevin Kiley (R) 53.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder (D) 54.8% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
California 13 D+4 John Duarte (R) 50.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 22 D+5 David Valadao (R) 51.5% R Lean R Tilt R Tossup Tossup
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia (R) 53.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
California 40 R+2 Young Kim (R) 56.8% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 41 R+3 Ken Calvert (R) 52.3% R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R
California 45 D+2 Michelle Steel (R) 52.4% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter (D)
(retiring)		 51.7% D Lean D Tilt D Tossup Likely D
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin (D) 52.6% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Colorado 3 R+7 Lauren Boebert (R) 50.1% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R
Colorado 8 EVEN Yadira Caraveo (D) 48.4% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D
Connecticut 5 D+3 Jahana Hayes (D) 50.5% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
Florida 5[lower-alpha 1] R+11 John Rutherford (R) 100.0% R Tossup Solid R Solid R Solid R
Florida 7[lower-alpha 1] R+5 Cory Mills (R) 58.5% R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Florida 9[lower-alpha 1] D+8 Darren Soto (D) 53.6% D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Florida 13[lower-alpha 1] R+6 Anna Paulina Luna (R) 53.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Florida 15[lower-alpha 1] R+4 Laurel Lee (R) 58.5% R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Florida 23[lower-alpha 1] D+5 Jared Moskowitz (D) 51.6% D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Florida 27[lower-alpha 1] EVEN María Elvira Salazar (R) 57.3% R Solid R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop (D) 55.0% D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D
Illinois 14 D+4 Lauren Underwood (D) 54.2% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D
Illinois 17 D+2 Eric Sorensen (D) 51.9% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Indiana 1 D+3 Frank J. Mrvan (D) 52.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 53.4% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson (R) 54.1% R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Iowa 3 R+3 Zach Nunn (R) 50.2% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup
Kansas 3 R+1 Sharice Davids (D) 54.9% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Louisiana 5[lower-alpha 1] R+17 Julia Letlow (R) 67.6% R Tossup Solid R Solid R Solid R
Louisiana 6[lower-alpha 1] R+19 Garret Graves (R) 80.4% R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden (D) 53.1% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Maryland 6 D+2 David Trone (D)
(retiring)		 54.7% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Michigan 3 D+1 Hillary Scholten (D) 54.9% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin (D)
(retiring)		 51.7% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D
Michigan 8 D+1 Dan Kildee (D) 53.1% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Michigan 10 R+3 John James (R) 48.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R
Minnesota 2 D+1 Angie Craig (DFL) 50.9% D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Missouri 2 R+7 Ann Wagner (R) 54.9% R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Montana 1 R+6 Ryan Zinke (R) 49.6% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Nebraska 2 EVEN Don Bacon (R) 51.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus (D) 51.6% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee (D) 52.0% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford (D) 52.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 1 EVEN Chris Pappas (D) 54.0% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Annie Kuster (D) 55.8% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim (D)
(retiring)		 55.4% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Solid D
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer (D) 54.7% D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D
New Jersey 7 R+1 Thomas Kean Jr. (R) 51.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup
New Mexico 1 D+5 Melanie Stansbury (D) 55.7% D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D
New Mexico 2 D+1 Gabe Vasquez (D) 50.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D
New York 1 R+3 Nick LaLota (R) 55.5% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R
New York 2 R+3 Andrew Garbarino (R) 60.7% R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
New York 3 D+2 George Santos (R) 53.7% R Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
New York 4 D+5 Anthony D'Esposito (R) 51.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
New York 17 D+3 Mike Lawler (R) 50.3% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
New York 18 D+1 Pat Ryan (D) 50.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
New York 19 EVEN Marc Molinaro (R) 50.8% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
New York 22 D+1 Brandon Williams (R) 50.5% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
North Carolina 1 TBD Don Davis (D) 52.4% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
North Carolina 6 TBD New seat – Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip)
North Carolina 11 TBD Chuck Edwards (R) 53.8% R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
North Carolina 13 TBD Wiley Nickel (D) 51.6% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip)
North Carolina 14 TBD Jeff Jackson (D)
(retiring)		 57.7% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip)
Ohio 1 D+2 Greg Landsman (D) 52.8% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
Ohio 9 R+3 Marcy Kaptur (D) 56.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup
Ohio 13 R+1 Emilia Sykes (D) 52.7% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Lean D
Oregon 4 D+4 Val Hoyle (D) 50.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 5 D+2 Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) 50.9% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oregon 6 D+4 Andrea Salinas (D) 50.0% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 54.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild (D) 51.0% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright (D) 51.2% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry (R) 53.8% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Chris Deluzio (D) 53.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
South Carolina 1 R+7 Nancy Mace (R) 56.4% R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Tennessee 5 R+9 Andy Ogles (R) 55.8% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R
Texas 15 R+1 Monica De La Cruz (R) 53.3% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R
Texas 28 D+3 Henry Cuellar (D) 56.7% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Texas 34 D+9 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 52.7% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Virginia 1 R+6 Rob Wittman (R) 56.7% R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Virginia 2 R+2 Jen Kiggans (R) 51.6% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger (D) 52.2% D Likely D Tilt D Likely D Lean D
Virginia 10 D+6 Jennifer Wexton (D)
(retiring)		 53.3% D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Washington 3 R+5 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) 50.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier (D) 53.3% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil (R) 54.1% R Solid R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Derrick Van Orden (R) 51.8% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Overall D – 204
R – 209
22 tossups		 D – 206
R – 217
12 tossups
 D – 204
R – 214
17 tossups		 D – 205
R – 210
20 tossups

Party listings

The two parties campaign committees NRCC and DCCC published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

On April 3, 2023, the DCCC released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[7]

  1. Arizona 1: David Schweikert
  2. Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
  3. California 3: Kevin Kiley
  4. California 13: John Duarte
  5. California 22: David Valadao
  6. California 27: Mike Garcia
  7. California 40: Young Kim
  8. California 41: Ken Calvert
  9. California 45: Michelle Steel
  10. Colorado 3: Lauren Boebert
  11. Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
  12. Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  13. Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
  14. Montana 1: Ryan Zinke
  15. Michigan 10: John James
  16. Nebraska 2: Don Bacon
  17. New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
  18. New York 1: Nick LaLota
  19. New York 3: George Santos
  20. New York 4: Anthony D'Esposito
  21. New York 17:Mike Lawler
  22. New York 19: Marc Molinaro
  23. New York 22: Brandon Williams
  24. Oregon 5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
  25. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
  26. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
  27. Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
  28. Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
  29. Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
  30. Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

On March 13, 2023, the NRCC released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[8] The DCCC also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the NRCC but not in the DCCC frontline program:

  1. Alaska At-Large: Mary Peltola
  2. California 9: Josh Harder
  3. California 47: Open seat
  4. California 49: Mike Levin
  5. Colorado 8: Yadira Caraveo
  6. Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
  7. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  8. Illinois 17: Eric Sorensen
  9. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  10. Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
  11. Maine 2: Jared Golden
  12. Michigan 3: Hillary Scholten
  13. Michigan 7: Open seat
  14. Michigan 8: Dan Kildee
  15. Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
  16. North Carolina 1: Don Davis
  17. North Carolina 13: Wiley Nickel
  18. North Carolina 14: Jeff Jackson
  19. New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
  20. New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
  21. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
  22. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  23. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  24. Ohio 1: Greg Landsman
  25. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
  26. Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
  27. Oregon 4: Val Hoyle
  28. Oregon 6: Andrea Salinas
  29. Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
  30. Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
  31. Pennsylvania 17: Chris Deluzio
  32. Rhode Island 2: Seth Magaziner
  33. Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
  34. Virginia 7: Abigail Spanberger
  35. Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
  36. Washington 8: Kim Schrier

References
  1. "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  2. "House of Representatives Results: GOP wins the majority". CNN. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  3. "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  4. "2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. March 10, 2023.
  5. "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
  6. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  7. RRobinson@DCCC.ORG (April 3, 2023). "DCCC Announces 2023-2024 Districts In Play". DCCC. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
  8. "NRCC Announces 37 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities to Grow GOP House Majority". NRCC. March 13, 2023. Retrieved July 15, 2023.

Notes
  1. Toss-up ratings for seats in Florida and Louisiana take into account the possibility that mid-decade redistricting may take place in those states prior to the 2024 elections due to the Supreme Court's ruling in Allen v. Milligan.
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