2024 United States Senate election in Florida
The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Rick Scott was elected with 50.05% of the vote in 2018. He is running for re-election to a second term in office, despite earlier rumors of him running for president.[1] Primary elections will take place on August 20, 2024.[2]
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| Elections in Florida |
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Background
Florida is considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.[3]
However, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2023, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[4]
Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson.[5] Given that the state has trended Republican in the past few years, this race is considered to be favoring Scott. However, some consider the race to have the potential to become more competitive, as both of Scott's governor races and his Senate race have all been decided by less than two percentage points.[6] Pundits have questioned whether his opposition to the 2020 Infrastructure bill and to Mitch McConnell's leadership will make him vulnerable, as well as his Columbia Healthcare Corporation's billion-plus dollar settlement over Medicare fraud and his Medicare "rescue" proposals.[7] His support for sunsetting Medicare is also seen as having notable potential for electoral liability, despite his willingness to spend his considerable wealth on a campaign.[8]
Republican primary
Declared
- Keith Gross, assistant state attorney for Florida's 18th circuit court[9]
- Patricia Krentcil, reality TV star known as "Tan Mom"[10]
- Rick Scott, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)[11]
Filed paperwork
- Angela Windhauser[12]
Declined
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018) (running for president)[13]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative from Florida's 19th congressional district (2021–present)[14] (running for re-election)[15]
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present) (running for re-election)[16]
Endorsements
Rick Scott (R) (Incumbent)
- U.S. Executive branch officials
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)[17]
- U.S. Senators
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2003–2009)[18]
- Local Officials
- 59 county sheriffs[19]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Keith Gross (R) | $669,431 | $505,189 | $164,241 |
| Rick Scott (R) | $14,059,045 | $12,440,784 | $3,078,864 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[26] | |||
Democratic primary
Declared
- Matt Boswell, progressive activist[27]
- Rod Joseph, consultant and Purple Heart recipient[27]
- Bernard Korn, realtor and perennial candidate[27]
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. Representative from Florida's 26th congressional district (2019–2021)[28]
- Matthew Sanscrainte, hospitality management consultant[27]
Filed paperwork
- Stanley Campbell, corporate executive, U.S. Army veteran, and brother of rapper Uncle Luke[29]
- Alan Grayson, former U.S. Representative from Florida's 9th congressional district (2009–2011, 2013–2017), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022, candidate for Florida's 9th congressional district in 2018, write-in candidate for Florida's 6th congressional district in 2020, and candidate for Florida's 10th congressional district in 2022[30]
- Josue Larose, businessman and perennial candidate[31]
- Donald Horan[32]
- Everett Stern[33]
- Chase Romagnano[34]
- Brian Rush[35]
Publicly expressed interest
- Jennifer Jenkins, Brevard County school board member (2020–present)[36][37]
Potential
- Grant Hill, co-owner of the Atlanta Hawks and former NBA player[38]
- Stephanie Murphy, former U.S. Representative from Florida's 7th congressional district (2017–2023)[38]
- Dwyane Wade, former NBA player[38]
- Andrew Warren, suspended Hillsborough County State Attorney (2017–2022)[39]
Withdrew
- Phil Ehr, nonprofit executive, U.S. Navy veteran, nominee for Florida's 1st congressional district in 2020 and candidate in 2018[40][41] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)[42]
Declined
- Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, U.S. Representative from Florida's 20th congressional district (2022–present)[43] (running for re-election)[15]
- Fentrice Driskell, Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2018–present)[44]
- Anna Eskamani, state representative (2018–present)[45] (running for re-election)[46]
- Lois Frankel, U.S. Representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[47] (running for re-election, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)[15][48]
- Frederica Wilson, U.S. Representative from Florida's 24th congressional district (2011–present)[43]
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 25th congressional district (2004–present)[43] (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)[48]
- Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 35th district (2021–present)[38] (endorsed Mucarsel-Powel)[42]
Endorsements
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
- U.S Representatives
- Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)[48]
- Lois Frankel, U.S. Representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[48]
- Maxwell Frost, U.S. Representative from Florida's 10th congressional district (2023–present)[48]
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[49]
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 25th congressional district (2004–present)[48]
- State legislators
- Kevin Chambliss, state representative[42]
- Lindsay Cross, state representative[42]
- Anna Eskamani, state representative[42]
- Ashley Gantt, state representative[42]
- Michael Gottlieb, state representative[42]
- Shevrin Jones, state senator[42]
- Tina Polsky, state senator[42]
- Carlos Guillermo Smith, former state representative[42]
- Annette Taddeo, former state senator[42]
- Marie Woodson, state representative[42]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Rod Joseph (D) | $7,244 | $6,440 | $804 |
| Alan Grayson (D) | $221,831 | $169,536 | $54,874 |
| Donald Horan (D) | $73,455 | $73,455 | $0 |
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) | $1,703,647 | $625,816 | $1,077,830 |
| Evertt Stern (D) | $325 | $325 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[26] | |||
Independents and third-party candidates
Filed paperwork
- James Davis (Write-in), code enforcement officer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran[54]
- Alix Christopher Toulme (Moderate Party)[55]
- Randy Toler (Green Party)[56] (also running for President)
- Salomon Hernandez Sr.[57]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[58] | Likely R | May 3, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[59] | Solid R | July 28, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] | Likely R | January 24, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[61] | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
Polling
Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Rick Scott (R) |
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group[upper-alpha 1] | July 5–10, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
Hypothetical polling
Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Rick Scott (R) |
Phil Ehr (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[upper-alpha 2] | June 27–29, 2023 | 1,298 (LV) | ? | 45% | 41% | 14%[lower-alpha 2] |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Includes "would not vote" with 3%
- Partisan clients
- This poll was commissioned by DSCC
- Poll commissioned for Phil Ehr
References
- Robertson, Nick (June 22, 2023). "Rick Scott denies he's running for president in 2024". The Hill. Retrieved July 17, 2023.
- "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- "Florida 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- Fineout, Gary (November 9, 2022). "Florida Republicans get a 'win for the ages'". POLITICO. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- "Florida | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- Perry, Mitch (February 21, 2023). "Can any Democrat pose a serious challenge to wealthy Rick Scott in 2024? Or is he vulnerable?". Florida Phoenix. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election pushing his controversial 'Rescue' plan, NBC News, Marc Caputo, January 26, 2023. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
- Rick Scott’s no regrets tour, Politico, Gary Fineout, January 9, 2023. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
- Ogles, Jacob (April 11, 2023). "Keith Gross launches GOP Primary challenge to Rick Scott". Florida Politics.
- "'Tan Mom' Patricia Krentcil Running for U.S. Senate". TMZ. August 15, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
- Caputo, Marc (January 26, 2023). "Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election pushing his controversial 'Rescue' plan". NBC News. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
- "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1727167". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
- Dorn, Sara (August 28, 2023). "DeSantis Team Denies Trump's Rumor He'll Drop Out Of Presidential Race To Run For Senate". Forbes. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- Greenwood, Max (December 14, 2022). "Rick Scott faces uncertain future after bruising midterm year".
One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott].
- Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- "Sixty Days for 3.14.23 — A prime-time look at the 2023 Legislative Regular Session".
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024.
- Daugherty, Eric (October 13, 2023). "Rick Scott endorsed by Mike Pompeo for reelection". Florida’s Voice. Archived from the original on October 13, 2023. Retrieved October 13, 2023.
- "RJC PAC Endorses Champions of the Jewish Community, Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, for Re-Election". Republican Jewish Coalition. July 12, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- Wilson, Drew (July 24, 2023). "Rick Scott earns endorsements from 59 Florida Sheriffs for 2024 re-election bid". Florida Politics.
- Ogles, Jacob (June 26, 2023). "Senior citizen group endorses Rick Scott's re-election". Florida Politics.
- "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- Ogles, Jacob (September 15, 2023). "Florida builders, contractors endorse Rick Scott's re-election bid". Florida Politics.
- "Club for Growth endorses Scott and dings McConnell".
- Cooper, Amber (September 18, 2023). "Florida Police Chiefs Association endorses Rick Scott's 2024 reelection bid". Florida’s Voice. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
- "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- "2024 Election United States Senate - Florida". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
- Derby, Kevin (February 23, 2023). "Rick Scott Plans to Hit Every County in Florida During Reelection Campaign". Florida Daily. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
- "Former US Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell to challenge Rick Scott for Senate seat - CBS Miami". www.cbsnews.com. August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
- Caputo, Marc (October 2, 2023). "Black Golf Course Owner and Brother of 2 Live Crew Rapper Plots Run for Florida Senate (Exclusive)". The Messenger. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
- Perry, Mitch (June 23, 2023). "Former Dem. Rep. Alan Grayson 'exploring' potential U.S. Senate race in 2024". Florida Phoenix. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
- "Josue Larose FEC Statement of Candidacy". September 19, 2022. Retrieved December 11, 2022.
- "HORAN, DONALD - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
- "STERN, EVERETT - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
- "ROMAGNANO, CHASE ANDERSON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
- "RUSH, BRIAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved August 20, 2023.
- "Brevard School Board member Jennifer Jenkins 'considering' a run for U.S. Senate". May 12, 2023.
- Greenwood, Max (July 12, 2023). "Democrats want to take on Rick Scott next year. They still need to find a candidate". Miami Herald. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
- Dixon, Matt; Allen, Jonathan (May 8, 2023). "Democratic donors hope to recruit NBA legends Grant Hill and Dwyane Wade to run for Senate in Florida". NBC News. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Roa, Ray (August 16, 2023). "Andrew Warren on his future, DeSantis' tanking campaign, and 'political puppet' Susan Lopez". Creative Loafing Tampa Bay. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
- Fineout, Gary (July 17, 2023). "Florida Navy vet mounts bid to defeat Rick Scott". POLITICO. Retrieved July 17, 2023.
- Fineout, Gary (October 18, 2023). "Challenger to Rick Scott drops out of Florida Senate race". POLITICO. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
- Ogles, Jacob (October 19, 2023). "10 sitting, former state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics.
- "Can Florida Democrats Find Anyone (at All) to Run for Senate?". March 27, 2023.
- Dixon, Matt (August 21, 2023). "Top Florida Democrat passes on challenging Sen. Rick Scott in 2024". NBC News.
Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature.
- Covey, Erin (April 4, 2023). "Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats". Retrieved April 4, 2023.
- Ogles, Jacob (September 6, 2023). "Anna Eskamani kicks off re-election campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
- Covey, Erin (April 4, 2023). "Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats". Retrieved April 4, 2023.
- Ogles, Jacob (September 21, 2023). "4 Florida members of Congress endorse Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- "GIFFORDS Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for US Senate". Giffords. August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
- "CHC BOLD PAC Endorses Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the Florida U.S. Senate Race". BOLD PAC. August 28, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
- "Elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and expand our Democratic Senate majority!". ActBlue. August 22, 2023. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
- Wang, Danni (May 11, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Election to the United States Senate". EMILYs List. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
- "LCV Action Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
- "James Davis FEC Statement of Candidacy". January 28, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2022.
- "Alix Christopher Toulme". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 3, 2023.
- "TOLER, RANDY MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
- "HERNANDEZ, SALOMON SR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
- "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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