2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections will take place on May 14, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (D) was first elected in a 2010 special election to complete the term of Robert Byrd (D), who died in office.[2] He easily won his first full term in 2012 and was narrowly re-elected to a second full term in 2018. The last time a Republican won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956.
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Manchin has filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but he said that he will not decide whether he is seeking re-election until the end of 2023.[3]
Background
West Virginia was mainly a Democratic stronghold from the New Deal through the 1990s, but like much of rural Appalachia, the state has rapidly swung towards the Republican Party in the years since.[4] It is now staunchly Republican and considered a deeply red state, giving Donald Trump a roughly 39 percentage point margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election, his second-strongest performance in the nation.[5] However, Manchin has continued to see electoral success, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to the state.[6]
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[7] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[8] and Governor Jim Justice.[9]
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was reelected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, many analysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. In fact, due to Manchin’s poor favorability ratings and Justice’s strong ratings with the West Virginia electorate, Elections Daily considers the race a "safe" Republican flip.[10] Should Manchin not run, the race is universally expected to be an easy Republican pickup.[11]
Democratic primary
Formed exploratory committee
- Zachary Shrewsbury, political organizer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran[12]
Filed paperwork
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. Senator (2010–present)[13] (decision expected in December 2023)[14]
Endorsements
Joe Manchin[lower-alpha 1]
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Stephen A. Schwarzman, Chairman of the Strategic and Policy Forum (2017) (Republican)[15]
- U.S. Senators
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present) (Republican)[16]
- Lisa Murkowski, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[17]
- Organizations
Zachary Shrewsbury
- State legislators
- Richard Ojeda, former state senator from the 7th district (2016–2019), nominee for West Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2018, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020[19]
- Individuals
- Howie Klein, former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University[20]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Joe Manchin (D) | $10,566,894 | $2,068,128 | $10,789,594 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Republican primary
Declared
- Jim Justice, 36th Governor of West Virginia (2017–present)[9]
- Zane Lawhorn, optometrist and perennial candidate[22]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–present)[8]
Declined
- Carol Miller, U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[25][26] (running for re-election)[27]
- Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)[28]
Endorsements
Jim Justice
- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[29]
- U.S. Senators
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2021–present)[30]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2015–present)[31]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[32]
- Individuals
- Cathy Justice, educator and First Lady of West Virginia (2017–present) (Justice's wife)[33]
- Organizations
Alex Mooney
- U.S. Senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[35]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[36]
- Mike Lee, U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present)[36]
- Jim DeMint, former U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[36]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007–present)[37]
- Statewide officials
- Riley Moore, West Virginia State Treasurer (2021–present)[38]
- Craig Blair, Lieutenant Governor of West Virginia (2021–present)[39]
- State legislators
- Eric Householder, Majority Leader of the West Virginia House of Delegates (2023–present)[39]
- Rollan Roberts, state senator from the 9th district (2019–present)[38]
- Chuck Horst, state delegate from the 62nd district (2020–present)[38]
- Patricia Rucker, state senator from the 16th district (2016–present)[39]
- Robert Karnes, state senator from the 11th district (2020–present)[39]
- Chris Pritt, state delegate from the 36th district (2020–present)[38]
- Pat McGeehan, state delegate from the 1st district (2014–present)[38]
- Organizations
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund[40]
- Club for Growth[41]
- Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)[33]
- Republican Liberty Caucus[42]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[43]
- West Virginia Republican Assembly[44]
- Veterans for America First[45]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Alex Mooney |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates[upper-alpha 1] | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4/0% | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Orion Strategies[upper-alpha 2] | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 25% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | 35% |
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | 38% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Alex Mooney |
Patrick Morrisey |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14-17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 29, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Justice (R) | $935,035 | $126,270 | $808,765 |
| Alex Mooney (R) | $2,010,616 | $474,055 | $1,536,560 |
| Chris Rose (R) | $18,215 | $18,215 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Third-party and independent candidates
Publicly expressed interest
- Joe Manchin, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator (2010–present)[46]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[47] | Tossup | May 3, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[48] | Tilt R (flip) | July 28, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] | Lean R (flip) | January 24, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[10] | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
Polling
- Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Jim Justice (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | September 24–26, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28%[lower-alpha 4] | 41% | 31% |
| The Terrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 8% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | 11% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 14%[lower-alpha 6] |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | 28% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Alex Mooney (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 1-4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
- Jim Justice vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice (R) |
Joe Manchin (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 43% | 11% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Patrick Morrisey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Notes
- Has not declared his candidacy.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
- This poll asked about a scenario in which Manchin ran as an independent.
- This poll asked about a scenario in which Manchin ran as an independent.
- Includes Some other candidate with 1%
- Partisan clients
- Poll commissioned by Justice
- Poll commissioned by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
- Poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates
References
- "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- "Democrat Manchin wins West Virginia Senate seat, NBC projects". Reuters. November 3, 2010. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
- Concepcion, Summer (April 2, 2023). "Sen. Joe Manchin says he won't decide on 2024 plans until 'the end of the year'". NBC News. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
- Thomas, Zoe (November 2, 2016). "Coal country West Virginia feels forgotten by politics". BBC News. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- "Deep in Virginia's craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope". Washington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- Edmondson, Catie (October 8, 2018). "Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 10, 2021.
- Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". POLITICO. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
- "West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat". WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- Staff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate". www.wdtv.com. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- Cunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023). "Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican". Elections Daily. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
- Kondik, Kyle (January 24, 2023). "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- Schott, Bryan (July 11, 2023). "Republican Brad Wilson says he's 'exploring' a run for U.S. Senate next year. He's been an official candidate for nearly three months". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- Everett, Burgess (April 18, 2022). "Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
- Neukam, Stephen (March 5, 2023). "Manchin says he'll decide his 'political future' in December". The Hill.
- Schwartz, Brian (October 12, 2021). "Billionaire Peltz draws GOP megadonors to $5,000-a-plate fundraiser for Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin". CNBC.
Manchin told the crowd of donors that he plans to run for reelection in 2024...
- Everett, Burgess (July 26, 2021). "Manchin weighs another term as his influence peaks". Politico.
Murkowski and Collins said they would return the favor and back Manchin in 2024.
- Schnell, Mychael (February 6, 2022). "Manchin crosses party lines in officially endorsing Murkowski". The Hill.
Murkowski said she will endorse Manchin if he decides to run for reelection in 2024.
- Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
The pro-Israel PAC also weighed in on several Senate races that are expected to be hotly contested, endorsing incumbent Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV), all of whom are likely to face tough reelection races.
- https://www.instagram.com/p/CymKdbKsZfm/
- Klein, Howie (October 22, 2023). "Can A Real Democrat Defeat Joe Manchin AND Jim Justice?". Blue America. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- "2024 Election United States Senate - West Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- Tillman, Scott (August 21, 2023). "Zane Lawhorn Pledges to Support Term Limits on Congress". US Term Limits. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- "GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton". Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
- "West Virginia | Chris Rose For WV Senate". Chris Rose WV Senate. Retrieved August 12, 2023.
- Mutnick, Ally (October 12, 2021). "3 members, 2 seats: West Virginia Republicans gird for redistricting showdown". Politico.
- Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- "AG Morrisey Announces Run For Governor". April 4, 2023.
- Huynh, Anjali (October 18, 2023). "Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
- "Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?". Deseret News. April 28, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- Tsirkin, Julie; Bowman, Bridget (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Jim Justice announces West Virginia Senate run, kicking off heated GOP primary". NBC News. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- "Justice Begins Campaign For U.S. Senate". West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 27, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- Adams, Steven Allen (April 28, 2023). "Justice all in on US senate race". The Inter-Mountain. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
- "WV Coal Association Endorses Slate of Pro-Coal Candidates for 2024 Election". www.wvcoal.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- Elkin, Elizabeth (April 21, 2023). "Cruz backs Alex Mooney in West Virginia Senate race as GOP works to unseat Joe Manchin". Fox News. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
- Adams, Steven (July 8, 2023). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul rallies for Mooney in Huntington". Weirton Daily Times. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- Campbell, Chase (March 8, 2023). "Political rally with congressmen Alex Mooney and Jim Jordan to take place". www.wtap.com. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- McElhinny, Brad (April 19, 2023). "As Senate race heats up, Justice says he's not bothered by Mooney's early endorsements from legislators". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- Adkins, Roger (April 23, 2023). "Mooney picking up support in US Senate race; Justice says he's unconcerned". The Herald-Dispatch. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "Alex Mooney Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Primary Election". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. October 30, 2013. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
- "Club for Growth moves to stop Jim Justice for Senate coronation". Politico. April 4, 2023.
- Bowman, Jessico (August 28, 2023). "The Republican Liberty Caucus endorses Alex Mooney for U.S. Senate in West Virginia". Republican Liberty Caucus. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
- "Mooney outraises Manchin in U.S. Senate campaign reports". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- Telegraph, CHARLES OWENS Bluefield Daily (September 26, 2023). "West Virginia Republican Assembly endorses Mooney for U.S. Senate". Bluefield Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
- "Veterans For Trump Endorsement of Rep Alex Mooney for West Virginia Senate 2024". www.pr.com. May 27, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
- "Democratic Senator Joe Manchin says he's been thinking seriously about becoming an independent". Associated Press. August 11, 2023. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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