2024 United States presidential election in Florida
 | |||||||
| |||||||
| |||||||
| |||||||
| Elections in Florida |
|---|
 |
 Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1] Although once considered a swing and bellwether state, the Sunshine State has taken a large rightward turn in recent years, with Donald Trump carrying the state in the 2020 presidential election despite losing nationwide, and Republicans winning statewide offices in large, double-digit margins in the 2022 midterm elections.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for re-election to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Florida Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.
Primary polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Hillary Clinton |
Kamala Harris |
Gavin Newsom |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | Sep 15–18, 2022 | 163 (LV) | – | 50% | – | – | 33% | 17% |
| Suffolk University | Jan 26–29, 2022 | 164 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | – | 11% |
| Victory Insights | Sep 16–18, 2021 | 200 (LV) | – | 60% | – | 17% | – | 23% |
General election
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1100 (LV) | ± | 44% | 37% | 8% | 11% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7 – October 9, 2023 | 1100 (RV) | – | 44% | 39% | 6% | 11% |
| Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | – | 49% | 39% | 8% | 2% |
| Metropolitan Research Services | March 15–19, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
| Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,224 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| Florida Atlantic University | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 0% | 9% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | – | 49% | 36% | 4% |
| Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Cherry Communications | February 10–19, 2023 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 47% | – |
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | 4% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) | September 11–12, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 55% | – |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
- Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 49% | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Hillary Clinton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
References
- Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- Friedersdorf, Conor (November 9, 2022). "Is Florida Still a Swing State?". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
- Din, Benjamin (March 25, 2021). "Biden: 'My plan is to run for reelection' in 2024". Politico.com. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.